提升英语口语思辨能力的教学改革策略

针对21世纪对英语口语思辨表达能力的要求，分析了英语口语和思辨性表达的关系，回顾了提升英语口语思辨能力的理论文献，总结了在英语听说课程中实践话题性内容听力导入、小组活动、演讲范例分析和呈现、文学经典作品导入和呈现有效提升英语口语思辨表达能力的作用。     

Varieties of political support in emerging democracies: A cross-national analysis

Political support is a multidimensional construct encompassing evaluations of political leaders and institutions (specific support) as well as adherence to basic regime principles (diffuse support). Scholars have traditionally assumed that diffuse and specific support are driven by different forces and evolve largely independently. Prior empirical work, however, has struggled to untangle the two support dimensions and focused predominantly on cross-national differences, ignoring their dynamics. This paper develops an analytical and empirical approach to examine the levels and dynamic interplay of both support dimensions and estimate their determinants, applying it to South American democracies between 1996 and 2015. Contrary to received wisdom, we show that both dimensions are quite volatile and closely linked in this region. In particular, negative economic shocks not only undermine support for government actors, but also fuel democratic disenchantment. Nonetheless, while regime support is rather fickle in South America, it can be ultimately resistant to performance fluctuations.     

Linearity,symmetry, and equidistance in semantic differential scales for measuring images of self and images of others

ABSTRACT

Violations of linearity, symmetry, and equidistance of scale points in semantic differential scales may be due to respondents failing to figure out antonyms, to a positivity bias, or to respondents curtailing their reading the options. Multiple correspondence analysis on data provided by a randomized between-subjects experiment (split-ballot), using a web survey of 537 German residents, shows that bipolar semantic differential scales allow for linear measurement and conceal no positivity bias, and that using not suitable adjective pairs in semantic differential scales destroys symmetry.     

Toward an Application Guide for Safety Integrity Level Allocation in Railway Systems

The work in the article presents the development of an application guide based on feedback and comments stemming from various railway actors on their practices of SIL allocation to railway safety‐related functions. The initial generic methodology for SIL allocation has been updated to be applied to railway rolling stock safety‐related functions in order to solve the SIL concept application issues. Various actors dealing with railway SIL allocation problems are the intended target of the methodology; its principles will be summarized in this article with a focus on modifications and precisions made in order to establish a practical guide for railway safety authorities. The methodology is based on the flowchart formalism used in CSM (common safety method) European regulation. It starts with the use of quantitative safety requirements, particularly tolerable hazard rates (THR). THR apportioning rules are applied. On the one hand, the rules are related to classical logical combinations of safety‐related functions preventing hazard occurrence. On the other hand, to take into account technical conditions (last safety weak link, functional dependencies, technological complexity, etc.), specific rules implicitly used in existing practices are defined for readjusting some THR values. SIL allocation process based on apportioned and validated THR values is finally illustrated through the example of “emergency brake” subsystems. Some specific SIL allocation rules are also defined and illustrated.     

基于交叉效率和合作博弈的决策单元排序方法

在数据包络分析中，大量的交叉效率模型已被提出。然而选择不同的目标模型将实现不一样的交叉效率评价。本文基于针对单个决策单元实施的对抗型和仁慈型两个交叉效率模型，用合作博弈方法来研究交叉效率模型的选取，并利用Shapley值对决策单元进行排序。最后通过实例分析显示该排序方法充分利用了最小交叉效率和最大交叉效率的信息完全排序了所有决策单元，具有一定的综合性和合理性。     

Risk Mapping of Groundwater‐Drawdown‐Induced Land Subsidence in Heterogeneous Soils on Large Areas

Groundwater leakage into subsurface constructions can cause reduction of pore pressure and subsidence in clay deposits, even at large distances from the location of the construction. The potential cost of damage is substantial, particularly in urban areas. The large‐scale process also implies heterogeneous soil conditions that cannot be described in complete detail, which causes a need for estimating uncertainty of subsidence with probabilistic methods. In this study, the risk for subsidence is estimated by coupling two probabilistic models, a geostatistics‐based soil stratification model with a subsidence model. Statistical analyses of stratification and soil properties are inputs into the models. The results include spatially explicit probabilistic estimates of subsidence magnitude and sensitivities of included model parameters. From these, areas with significant risk for subsidence are distinguished from low‐risk areas. The efficiency and usefulness of this modeling approach as a tool for communication to stakeholders, decision support for prioritization of risk‐reducing measures, and identification of the need for further investigations and monitoring are demonstrated with a case study of a planned tunnel in Stockholm.     

Risk Ranking of Antimicrobial‐Resistant Hazards Found in Meat in Switzerland

Human exposure to bacteria resistant to antimicrobials and transfer of related genes is a complex issue and occurs, among other pathways, via meat consumption. In a context of limited resources, the prioritization of risk management activities is essential. Since the antimicrobial resistance (AMR) situation differs substantially between countries, prioritization should be country specific. The objective of this study was to develop a systematic and transparent framework to rank combinations of bacteria species resistant to selected antimicrobial classes found in meat, based on the risk they represent for public health in Switzerland. A risk assessment model from slaughter to consumption was developed following the Codex Alimentarius guidelines for risk analysis of foodborne AMR. Using data from the Swiss AMR monitoring program, 208 combinations of animal species/bacteria/antimicrobial classes were identified as relevant hazards. Exposure assessment and hazard characterization scores were developed and combined using multicriteria decision analysis. The effect of changing weights of scores was explored with sensitivity analysis. Attributing equal weights to each score, poultry‐associated combinations represented the highest risk. In particular, contamination with extended‐spectrum β‐lactamase/plasmidic AmpC‐producing Escherichia coli in poultry meat ranked high for both exposure and hazard characterization. Tetracycline‐ or macrolide‐resistant Enterococcus spp., as well as fluoroquinolone‐ or macrolide‐resistant Campylobacter jejuni , ranked among combinations with the highest risk. This study provides a basis for prioritizing future activities to mitigate the risk associated with foodborne AMR in Switzerland. A user‐friendly version of the model was provided to risk managers; it can easily be adjusted to the constantly evolving knowledge on AMR.     

Bibliometric analysis of production planning and control (1990–2016)

Production Planning and Control (PPC) has been one of the primary publishing outlets for operations management research for nearly three decades. This paper presents bibliometric analysis of the journal from its inception through 2016. PPC was analysed from six different perspectives to provide reliable and in-depth information about the journal’s performance and development. The analysis considered the development of the journal itself, the countries of contributing authors, authors’ academic and practitioner organisation affiliations, the top publishing and most cited authors, the most cited articles, and finally the topics of published papers through analysis of titles, keywords and abstracts. It was found that the journal is considered an outlet for both practice and academic research, reflecting changes over time in the landscape of operations management.     

A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.